Last night, the website for the U.S. Agency for International Development came back after days offline. It displayed a short message: Almost all USAID staff are being placed on leave.
During his first two weeks back in office, President Trump has fired prosecutors and agency watchdogs across the government. He offered employees payouts to resign, threatening mass layoffs if they didn’t. He tried to freeze trillions of dollars in federal grants and loans. More is reportedly coming; the F.B.I. and the Education Department are likely future targets.
All of this news can seem chaotic and unpredictable. But beneath it all, Trump has a vision. To achieve his policy goals, he argues, the federal government has to change: First, it must become more efficient. Second, the “deep state” that Trump believes opposed him during his first term must go.
Today’s newsletter will look at these two rationales — and what could get in Trump’s way.
1. Government efficiency
Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency intends to slash $1 trillion in federal spending and bring Silicon Valley productivity to the federal work force. Only then, the thinking goes, can the government move swiftly enough to implement Trump’s ambitious policy agenda.
Musk is acting quickly and noisily. He has dispatched a phalanx of Silicon Valley acolytes to access computer and accounting systems controlled by civil servants. In explaining his actions, he has vilified government agencies, calling USAID a “criminal organization” without evidence. (“Time for it to die,” he added.) He has told friends that he measures his success in taxpayer dollars saved per day.
But Congress has power of the purse, and the president cannot, under the Constitution, unilaterally shut down programs that Congress has funded. Already, courts ruled against Trump’s attempt to freeze federal grants and loans.
And even if he could fire all civilian employees, their pay makes up just 4 percent of the federal budget. Most spending goes to the military, Social Security, Medicare and programs that help low-income Americans (such as food stamps and Medicaid). Cuts to those areas could be unpopular — both with the public and with the lawmakers who’d need to vote for them. For now, Trump has left all of those expensive programs unscathed.
Instead, his administration has targeted relatively small agencies, like USAID and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, which have historically operated with a lot of autonomy.
2. Dismantling the ‘deep state’
What, then, could explain Trump’s choices? That autonomy may be the true target. Trump believes a group of federal employees, which he calls the “deep state,” stifled his first-term agenda. Some government workers have admitted as much.
One of Trump’s grievances is how long it takes to make policy: Ideas often have to go through studies, contracting proposals, public comment periods and more before officials implement them. Then they have to survive legal challenges. A determined federal employee who opposes a policy proposal could take advantage of this process to slow things down.
Trump knows that he wants to accomplish many things that the disproportionately liberal federal work force dislikes. He wants to deport millions of unauthorized migrants, roll back policies that fight climate change and impose tariffs. He wants people in power, from the rank and file to cabinet secretaries, who will faithfully execute that vision. So his administration has tried to entice his opponents to leave — by offering payouts, abolishing remote work and threatening layoffs.
But remaking the federal work force is not easy. Laws, regulations and union contracts protect employees. The administration can’t eliminate many programs on its own. Some workers have filed lawsuits to stop the Trump administration’s actions.
Will it work?
The lawsuits hint at a broader problem with the administration’s efforts: Much of what it’s doing might be illegal. Eventually, the courts could step in to stop Trump and Musk. Congress could, too.
Trump is betting that the other branches of government won’t intervene. In his first term, he stocked the Supreme Court with friendly justices. Republicans now control the House and the Senate, and they have stood up for Trump and Musk’s efforts so far.
“To my friends who are upset, I would say with respect, you know, Call somebody who cares,” Senator John Kennedy of Louisiana said this week. “They better get used to this. It’s USAID today. It’s going to be Department of Education tomorrow.”
Related: Trump has brazenly defied the law in his attempts to seize more executive power, my colleague Charlie Savage writes.
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