ATP 250 Santiago semifinals
Cerundolo – Djere: 01.03.2025 22:00 CEST
H2H: 0-1
Francisco Cerundolo has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Rio de Janeiro, Cerundolo reached the quarterfinals, losing against Muller in straight sets. This week in Santiago, Cerundolo won the opening match round against Hanfmann in three tight sets. It was a tight match, but Francisco won the most critical points. Cerundolo lost the opening set against Etcheverry 4-6 in the quarterfinals. He kept his composure and turned the match around.
Laslo Djere has won four of his last five matches. Two weeks ago in Buenos Aires, Djere reached the semifinals, losing against Fonseca in three tight sets. This week in Santiago, Laslo won the opening match against the qualifier, Buse, in straight sets. In the second round, the Serb demolished Martinez 6-1 6-4, saving all four breakpoints. Yesterday, in the quarterfinals, Djere had his toughest challenge. After spending almost three hours on the court, he defeated Faria in three tight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Djere is the underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. Laslo has been in great form since the beginning of the clay court season. He has lost only one set in the past three matches in Santiago. On the other hand, Cerundolo won both matches in three tight sets and struggled in each match. We expect Djere to be more dominant in rallies and win for the second time against Cerundolo.
That being said, Djere winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Laslo Djere winning @2.20 @bet365
Baez – Ugo Carabelli: 01.03.2025 23:30 CEST
H2H: 4-0
Sebastian Baez has won seven straight matches. Last week in Rio de Janeiro, Baez won the title against Muller in the final in straight sets. This week in Santiago, Sebastian won the opening match against Comesana in three tight sets. Baez looked exhausted on the court. He trailed 3-5 in the deciding set tiebreak but turned it around. As we predicted, Baez won against Dzumhur in tight straight sets in the quarterfinals.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Rio de Janeiro, Camilo reached the semifinals, eventually losing against Baez in three tight sets. This week in Santiago, Camilo won the opening-round match against Jarry in three tight sets after spending almost three hours on the court. In the second round, Ugo Carabelli lost the opening set against Monteiro 4-6 but turned the match around. In the quarterfinals, Camilo defeated Coria in straight sets, as we predicted.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Baez is the favorite in this matchup, but we disagree. Dzumhur put up a big fight against Baez yesterday in the quarterfinals. On the other hand, Camilo dominated against Coria. Ugo Carabelli is in great form and had a chance against Baez last week in Rio de Janeiro. We expect another tight match that could go either way.
That being said, Ugo Carabelli covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Camilo Ugo Carabelli +3.5 games handicap @1.85 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports