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Tuesday Briefing: U.S. Recession Fear Rattles Markets

Tuesday Briefing: U.S. Recession Fear Rattles Markets


Stock markets around the world fell yesterday, a day after President Trump refused to rule out the possibility that his trade policies may cause a recession this year. The S&P 500 was down by nearly 3 percent, the sharpest drop in months. Several retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. also went into effect. Here’s what to know:

Stocks tumbled

Many stocks dropped yesterday as nervous investors reacted to a Trump interview that aired on Sunday in which he described “a period of transition” for the U.S. economy, and suggested more tariffs could come. Prices also plunged for several large tech companies, whose stocks have an outsize influence. Markets in Europe and Asia were under pressure, too, but the declines paled in comparison with losses on Wall Street.

Global effects

In a report, analysts at JPMorgan Chase warned that the possibility of a U.S. slowdown had resulted in a “materially higher risk of a global recession this year because of extreme U.S. policies.” They put the probability of a downturn at 40 percent.

Several countries issued their own tariffs

The Canadian province of Ontario imposed a 25 percent tariff on energy exports to Michigan, Minnesota and New York. The move will cost businesses and residents in each state up to $400,000 per day, Ontario’s top official said.

Beijing imposed tariffs on many farm products from the U.S. Japanese officials are expected to visit Washington this week for talks before tariffs hit exports from Japan. Trump is set to issue tomorrow a 25 percent tariff on all steel and aluminum imports, but some metals businesses said that was good news.

Mark Carney, a former central banker, was swept into the leadership of Canada’s Liberal Party on Sunday night and is expected to be sworn in as prime minister this week. He will soon have to call a general election, in which the Liberals will face the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre.

Days ahead: Carney, who is seen as a centrist technocrat, revisited some of his main campaign promises in a speech, including immediately eliminating a widely criticized carbon tax. His campaign focused mainly on reorienting Canada’s struggling economy.

Outside threats: Adding to the country’s economic woes are Trump’s on-again-off-again tariffs, which are already taking their toll. His frequent statements about making Canada the 51st state have angered most of the public.

General election: In his victory speech, Carney referred to Poilievre as a leader that would leave Canada divided and “kneel” before Trump rather than stand up to him. Anger at the U.S. president has grown so much that Poilievre, seen as ideologically similar to Trump, has started to try to create some distance between them.


The Kurdish-led militia that controls northeast Syria agreed yesterday to merge with the country’s new government. It was a major breakthrough for Damascus in its efforts to unify a country wrestling with violent turmoil.

The agreement stipulated that the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces would integrate “all civil and military institutions,” as well as its prized oil and gas fields, into the new Syrian state by the end of the year.

The decision by South Korea’s president, Yoon Suk Yeol, to impose martial law on Dec. 3 was not made in a vacuum, but almost nobody saw it coming. Yoon came close to achieving the unthinkable: a military takeover.

A Times investigation uncovered Yoon’s many missteps. The first was overestimating his allies.

Lives lived: Athol Fugard, a South African playwright whose works exposed the realities of racial separatism in his homeland, died at 92.

At an undisclosed farm in rural America, miniature pigs are given toys and kept warm under lights. The pampering is by design — they are clones, genetically engineered to have organs more compatible with humans. And their weak bodies need protection from the environment.

In 2022, researchers received permission to transplant pig organs into a few critically ill patients, and last year into healthier people. There are still unaddressed issues: Pigs carry pathogens that can jump to humans, for example. But as the first formal clinical trial begins, some scientists argue that there is a moral imperative to move forward.



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