LONDON — Ukrainian forces are struggling to prevent what could be a significant military setback, as their hold on the area of Russian territory they seized last year is becoming increasingly precarious.
A Russian offensive supported by North Korean troops in the past few days has made a serious advance in Russia’s Kursk region northeast of Ukraine, breaking through Ukrainian positions and forcing them to withdraw to new defense lines, according to Ukrainian and Russian military bloggers. Russia is attempting to cut Ukraine’s crucial supply road into Kursk, which is already under fire, meaning several thousand Ukrainian troops inside Russia are now at growing risk of encirclement.
Ukraine seized a foothold in the Kursk region with a surprise offensive in August, capturing hundreds of square miles of Russian territory, which it hoped to use as a bargaining chip in any peace negotiations. Russia for months has sought to dislodge the Ukrainians from the region, including with North Korean troops, but until recently had made slow progress while suffering heavy casualties.
Over the past week, Russian progress has dramatically increased, according to bloggers and Ukrainian troops on the ground, with Ukrainian troops clearly under severe pressure and forced to withdraw largely back toward the main town they control in the region, Sudzha. The Washington, D.C.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed Sunday that Russian forces are “collapsing” the northern part of the Ukrainian lines in Kursk.
A Ukrainian serviceman patrols a street next to buildings damaged during recent fighting between Ukrainian and Russian forces in the Ukrainian-controlled town of Sudzha in Russia’s Kursk region, Aug. 16, 2024.
Yan Dobronosov/Reuters, FILE
Russian forces have also succeeded in a flanking attack back across the border into Ukraine, aiming to reach the main supply road to the Ukrainian forces in Sudzha, according to open-source analysts. While Ukraine has, for now, reportedly blunted the Russian push, Russian troops are close to both sides of the route, which has already been under artillery and drone fire.
Over the weekend, Russian forces reached the outskirts of Sudzha itself, entering its industrial zone after launching an attack through a gas pipeline, according to military bloggers. Ukrainian units withdrew from much of their western flank in Kursk after Russian forces crossed the Psel River, allowing Russia to recapture several villages there, according to Clément Molin, a military analyst based in Lyon, France, and co-director of the Atum Mundi think tank.
A Ukrainian serviceman patrols an area in the controlled by Ukrainian army town of Sudzha, Kursk region, Russia, Aug. 16, 2024.
Yan Dobronosov/Reuters, FILE
The commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskyi, on Monday denied that Ukraine’s forces were at risk of encirclement, saying the situation was under control and they were inflicting heavy casualties on Russia.
Yurii Butusov, a prominent Ukrainian military journalist, confirmed Monday on his Telegram channel that the situation is “very difficult” but said there is currently no threat of Ukrainian troops being encircled, and that reinforcements continue to arrive into Sudzha.
Russia has intensified its efforts to drive Ukraine out of Kursk, as efforts at possible negotiations to end the three-year-old war have intensified under the Trump administration. The Kremlin has repeatedly signalled it will not start meaningful negotiations with Ukraine as long as it occupies parts of Kursk.
The ISW and other analysts have suggested the Trump administration’s sudden cutoff of U.S. intelligence sharing earlier this month is likely impacting Ukraine’s ability to defend in Kursk. The ISW noted that the Russian offensive appears to have intensified around the same time as President Donald Trump announced aid cutoff to Ukraine last week, suggesting Russia is trying to take advantage of it.
Ukrainian officials who spoke to ABC News last week said the curtailing of intelligence was intended to limit Ukraine’s strikes into Russia and warned it would hamper Ukraine’s ability to hit forces massing in Kursk.
“This will help Russians to concentrate their forces,” the source told ABC News on Thursday. “For example, now we know that North Korean soldiers are concentrating there again. We could have hit them preemptively, but now we can’t.”
The situation in Kursk, however, was already deteriorating before Trump halted intelligence sharing.
Ukraine’s deteriorating position in Kursk comes as it is finally seeing more positive developments on the eastern front in Donbas, where Russian forces’ advance appears to be stalling out and Ukraine is now mounting a number of counterattacks, according to independent military analysts.
For six months, Russia has crept forward toward the city of Pokrovsk, an important defensive hub, but there are signs its advance may now be close to exhausted there after suffering extremely high losses, according to Ukrainian military accounts and independent researchers.
Ukrainian troops in the past two weeks have managed to launch successful counterattacks on Russian positions around Pokrovsk, recapturing some ground. Ukraine has also managed to counterattack in another city, Toretsk, which, despite nine months of intense urban fighting, Russian forces have failed to capture.